Add Jobs to County
By Steve Pastis
Tulare County - A new report by Economic Modeling Specialists, Inc. shows that an expected population growth in Tulare County over the next seven years will result in an increase in service jobs in areas such as education, retail and health care.
However, the report, which compares 2008 job opportunities with those in 2016, does not take into account new and proposed projects, including the Tulare Motorsports Complex, Plaza Business Park and Cartmill Crossing, which could add thousands of new jobs to the area.
The EMSI report shows a 17 percent increase in new elementary school teaching positions, and a 16 percent increase in new registered nursing positions. Job openings in the two categories double when replacement positions are included.
“There's a big portion of the jobs in our economy that are demographic-driven,” said Adam Peck, executive director of the Tulare County Workforce Investment Board, explaining that jobs in fields such as education, retail and health care are determined by the population of an area.
The projections for other jobs are based on local industries and geography. Food processing is expected to see a 13 percent growth in jobs over the next seven years, according to the report. “In dairy production, we have a very robust industry because we produce the product,” said Peck.
The growing focus on “green jobs” is not a factor in the report. Peck explained that green jobs will be what some current jobs in construction and related industries become.
The report looks at where workers of the future are getting jobs, which includes both new and replacement jobs, including the jobs that will become available as baby boomers retire. The year 2016 was chosen because those are numbers that people can have some confidence in, said Peck. “Projections are always very fickle, but when you look at the big picture of trends, they're pretty accurate.”
Even so, the report does not include the new jobs that would be created by new projects, including the proposed Tulare Motorports Complex along Highway 99 in Tulare, a 55,000-seat race track and quarter-mile-long drag strip, which would include four or five new 300-400-room hotels and 600,000 square feet of retail space.
“The initial impact will be construction opportunities, roads, all of the trades,” said Tulare City Council Member Phil Vandegrift, who expects the motorsports complex to result in about 2,000 jobs in construction.
Once built out, the complex could
have “an impact of up to 16,000 jobs,” according to Vandegrift.
He expects between 6,000 to 8,000 new jobs from the complex and an increase
in jobs in the retail, hospitality and other related industries in the
area.
Because of the proposed complex, there is interest in building new projects
in other areas of the city. “We talk to people who want to put hotels
not on the site but near the site,” Vandegrift said.
The motorsports complex faces legal challenges and Vandegrift believes that the end of 2011 would be the soonest that it could open. If and when it opens, it would provide the area with “50 acres of job opportunities,” according to Vandergrift, who noted that the complex would include an automotive technology center.
“We've heard of some (automotive)
companies that want to locate near a motor sports complex,” said
Vandegrift, adding that he expects 30 technical, auto-related positions
that pay $100,000 or more from companies that have “contracts to
deliver a specially designed part to the automotive industry.” He
noted that the weather in the South Valley “is conducive to year-round
monitoring of automotive technology.”
In addition to automotive events, the complex could also accommodate musical
concerts, equestrian competitions and other special events, such as a
circus, Vandegrift said. “When we have large seating, it invites
events we don't even know yet.”
Two reports have estimated job growth from the complex at full build-out at 14,000 to 17,000, according to Tracy Meyers, Tulare economic development manager. This number includes full time, part time, seasonal and event specific employees, as well as new workers at other businesses in the area that would be needed because of visitors. The job growth is expected to bring more people to the area, which would increase the need for service employees.
“I think you could see an increase in public services – teachers, health care,” Meyers added. “I'm just hoping it has a good impact for local folks, for people who are out of jobs at all levels.”
The city of Tulare is also expected to gain 200 to 400 retail jobs from Cartmill Crossing, two separate proposed projects at Cartmill and Highway 99 that involve a total of 1 million square feet of new retail space in the city. Construction is expected to start in late 2011 or early 2012, according to Meyers, who noted that one “large big-box retailer has already committed” to the project.
Plaza Business Park
Plaza Business Park in northwest Visalia offers 300,000 square feet of office space, as well as locations for a hotel and three restaurants. It is already the site of the new 35,000-square-foot Fresno Pacific University Visalia Center.
“At full build-out, the center will have 1,000 jobs,” said Steve Peck, commercial development manager for Mangano, Inc., which developed the center. He added that 750 of those jobs should be clerical and professional. The size of the buildings would best serve corporate headquarters and other larger tenants, according to Peck. “This will probably bring more clerical and technical employment, as well as some managerial,” he said.
The project is expected to create 250 service jobs, mainly with the hotel, which will have 100-125 rooms, and the center's two fast-food restaurants and one sit-down restaurant. “The restaurants will happen over five to 10 years as demand indicates,” said Peck.
The center is tenant-driven, meaning
that it will be built as companies make plans to move in. “We are
seeing some prospects out there,” said Peck, who added that because
of the current economy, many companies “have “a wait-and-see
attitude.”
Peck believes that projects such as Plaza Business Park will produce new
jobs before retail developments do.
“The part of our business that is employee-driven – and not retail-driven – will come back first,” he said. “There will be more paychecks, but what people do with those paychecks is what everyone is concerned about. I think we're going to see job growth and paychecks a lot faster than consumer spending.”
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