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Who Will Fill Empty Stores?

Tulare County - With the closing of three major retailers in quick order – Mervyn's, Circuit City and likely soon Gottschalks – Visalia is among the Valley cities asking the question – who will fill these big empty boxes?

Mervyn's closed all its stores last month and Circuit City will close its Visalia store and the entire electronics chain by the end of March. Meanwhile, Gottschalks declared bankruptcy last week and most industry observers believe the Fresno-based department store is also heading for liquidation. For Visalia, that would leave a huge empty hole in the side of the Visalia Mall until someone else decides to take the space.

For Hanford – that would leave two large empty boxes.

Gottschalks has until the end of March to come up with a plan to save the chain by selling it to another investor. Failing that, there will be another going out of business sale and the place is likely to be empty by mid-year.

Counting all three retailers, it amounts to 250,000 square feet of suddenly vacant space in Visalia. Add to that another 250,000 square feet that has been sitting at the former Costco shopping center on South Mooney.

Still, the good news is that there is at least some interest in filling some of these spaces. “Companies looking around definitely have a lot of choice,” says commercial real estate developer Clyde Barbeau of Bakersfield. He and partner Bob Piccinini (Save Mart owner) have the old Home Base (Costco) shopping center on South Mooney.

Burlington Coat Factory Eyes Visalia

“A few retailers, including Burlington Coat Factory and Dick's Sporting Goods came looking several months ago. But now they have more choice of where to go,” said Barbeau. Burlington Coat Factory is a nationwide retailer with a store in Fresno and has about 30 locations around the state. Dick's Sporting Goods is a national retailer with only one store in California.

“When they found out the old Mervyn's was available, we didn't hear from them.” Barbeau says he and his partner had the empty Costco building – the only part of this shopping center they don't own – under contract to buy until the real estate market softened and they decided not to proceed. Now the shopping center partners will be losing their only retail anchor in Circuit City that leases from them and builds traffic for the small shops and restaurants in the center.

Still, Barbeau remembers how it was after the 9/11 terrorist act. “After that, we thought we would never sell another piece of real estate,” says Barbeau who has 120 stores in his portfolio around the Valley. “We've probably lost 10 to 12 recently,” he says.

The potential closing of Gottschalks weighs heavily on the Visalia Mall whose owners – General Growth Properties – has financial problems of its own. The loss of one of the mall's two anchors would be a big blow to Visalia's busiest shopping center – the first enclosed mall in California. The mall's owners lease the space to Gottschalks.

But unlike many towns where there is a Gottschalks, the Visalia Gottschalks is the only fashion-oriented department store in town and could draw a new company to the market, agree multiple sources thinking that the Visalia location (one of Gottschalks best selling stores) could be picked off from the rest of the 58 store chain.

“I'd say there is a better chance to bring in Dillards department store to Visalia than Macy's,” says Joe Pinto, former Visalia Gottschalks manager and now an independent consultant. “Macy's recently closed 11 stores of its own,” says Pinto, while Dillards hasn't been a strong performer either. The company's stock went from around $25 a year ago to about $4 today. Still, that's better than Gottschalks this week selling on the stock market for 11 cents a share.

Rumors that Fresno developer Ed Kashian was bringing Dillards to Clovis have grown loud enough in the past year. Bidders interested in Gottschalks may file their offer by March 2 through the Chapter 11 bankruptcy process. The Wall Street Journal reported in recent days that Harris Company, which continues to have a stake in the company and is owed $16 million for the sale of its company stores to Gottschalks back in 1998, could be a player. The store in Southern California continues to carry the Harris name as part Gottschalks/Harris. It isn't clear if Harris could have an interest in running the entire Gottschalks chain under its name or not. But it could end up with its nine original stores in the desert area of Southern California. It is the top creditor in line for money from the bankruptcy proceedings.

Of course, commercial retail space has suffered the same collapse that many other sectors of the economy have and it could be a long period of empty store fronts. Retailers have suffered six months of declining sales, says a federal report. But think of what sector hasn't headed down in the past six months. (See milk story this issue.)

Extreme Makeover?

That may be the feeling down at the Sequoia Mall where the owners have been working on a different concept to build a mixed-use residential area with a new theater reconfiguring the place in sort of an extreme makeover. “The malls need to re-invent themselves or turn into ghost towns,” says a commercial broker.

On the other hand, many locals like the idea of a Macy's – that may see Visalia as a unique opportunity like San Luis Obispo where Mervyns and Gottschalks space will be available – where the nationwide upscale department store does not have a presence. Macys has shown interest in both towns in the past.

Dillards – a Gottschalks look alike – has three stores in the state including Stockton and likely would want more. It could pick up many of the locations up and down the West Coast if and when Gottschalks liquidates. Dillards is one of the high-end department stores that made the news this week because it is giving away $175 million in cosmetics to settle a lawsuit.

High-end cosmetics was something where Gottschalks had an advantage in Visalia, says Pinto, offering brands like Clinique and Estee Lauder. Those brands won't be around when liquidation happens, he notes.

After that, don't expect things to happen fast, says Pinto. “I would guess the Visalia store could sit empty for a year – maybe two.”

The Hanford Mall is in even more of a pickle, since the market is smaller and the mall could now lose two of its four anchors. The mall would have trouble attracting a Dillards or Macy's to the former Gottschalks and Mervyn's spaces. But perhaps there are other smaller players that will find Hanford's mall space cheap enough to take the plunge.

One piece of conventional wisdom is that retailers interested in the big spaces will make the mall owners sweat – pushing leasing rates lower before they agree to come in at least while the economic climate is the way it is today.

Pinto believes the oversupply of space will mean “we will go back to the days when we have only a few “regional” retail malls that draw from a 100-mile radius instead of a mall around every corner. “You notice Costco didn't go build more stores in Tulare, Porterville or Hanford. They draw from all those areas to Visalia.” he notes.

The Clovis mall and a mall in Bakersfield will now have two spaces empty in the case of Clovis and all three anchor spaces in the case of the East Hills Mall in Bakersfield. All three of the empty stores would be bookends to the smaller retail stores in the corridor. Shoppers use the corridors heading from one end of the mall to the other. Now there may be no anchor destination for these shoppers.

Meanwhile, the winners in this shakeout are clearly Walmart, Target and Best Buy.

Two major losers in the loss of Mervyns, Circuit City and Gottschalks are the local dailies – the Fresno Bee and Times Delta which received hundreds of thousands in revenue from these retailers and won't any more. Worse – both newspapers are owed money. The Fresno Bee alone is owed $354,000 from Gottschalks, the paper reported recently – not including monies owed to the rest of Valley McClatchy papers.

Gottschalks owes $197 million, its bankruptcy filing said. If the Valley-born department store closes, some 5,800 people – most from the Valley – will lose their jobs. If that happens, surely no one will feel worse about it than former chairman Joe Levy, the last remaining member of the Gottschalks family who lives in Fresno.


Dairy Eyes Feds’ Help
Losing a Dream Worse Than the Money

By John Lindt

Tulare County - It's been a tough six weeks in the dairy business – Tulare County's number one economic driver. Milk prices have collapsed. Cheese prices are down 45 percent since December 1.

That collapse seemed to follow the pattern of other commodities led by oil that fell from near $150 this summer to $35 in a matter of months.

“An average Valley dairy – about 1,000 milking head – is losing about $100,000 a month,” says Western United Dairymen (WUD) Director Mike Marsh. Marsh has predicted the state could lose 10 percent of the dairies in this crisis.

In Tulare County, dairy broker John Grimmius thinks it could be worse. “Things are so bad that I wouldn't be surprised if we lost 20 percent to 25 percent of our dairies in the area. It will happen quickly, perhaps within six months.”

Many Tulare County dairies are far larger than 1,000 cows, with the average being about 1,500, says Grimmius. Some are 10,000 cows, meaning losses per month for some producers are in the hundreds of thousands each month.

Things are happening fast. The industry-supported group Cooperatives Working Together (CWT) has implemented a plan to eliminate 66,000 cows through the herd reduction program at the end of this month.

California Dairies Inc. (CDI), the state's largest milk co-op, and others are lobbying Congress for a loan to retire more cows quickly – perhaps more than 250,000 head from herds nationwide. They are likely to get a sympathetic ear because dairy prices are the lowest in decades, heading lower every day and pain is being felt in many congressional districts.

Action in Two Weeks

As Barack Obama is being sworn as president, United Diarymen is lobbying the new ag secretary for help “within the next two weeks” with three key initiatives:

1. Implement export incentive program funding already authorized by Congress but blocked by the Bush administration. This to combat new subsidies from the European Union

2. Push for a USDA guarantee for a loan to CWT for major increase in the herd retirement program with 250,000 cows a likely minimum.

3. USDA removal of beef from the market into export programs or government feeding programs so as not to further hurt the cattle market. Marsh says so many dairy animals are going to market that beef prices in the state have fallen from 70 cents a pound this summer to 35 cents a pound. Meanwhile, the price of beef in Pennsylvania – where there is no huge dairy industry – is 54 cents a pound.

CDI isn't the only cooperative impacted. Land O'Lakes has a couple of producers which are in this herd retirement round to be carried out at the end of this month. Company official Larry Serpa says that “never in the years I've been in the business, and I grew up on a dairy farm, have I seen anything like this. It's been an imperfect storm,” of factors that have brought the dairy industry to its knees.

He vows the battle is along the lines of fighting in WW2 and that “our community of dairymen will survive.”

John Grimmius says dairy co-ops like CDI, LOL and Dairy Farmers of America – each with good membership in the Valley – have implemented base production levels and any dairyman who produces more than the base amount of milk will simply have to dump it.

The price of milk paid to dairymen is now in the $9 per hundred pound range – the lowest in years and less than half of what it was a year ago. Meanwhile, costs for an average dairy are about $14 per hundred pounds. Dairymen are getting under a dollar a gallon for their fluid milk starting Feb. 1, says CDFA.

Because milk is worth far less, cows are not selling at auction for what they did six months ago, says Grimmius, if they sell at all. “I know of an auction recently with 700 cows that got no bids,” says Grimmius.

Marsh says milk cows selling last summer for $2,500 may be fetching just $1,400 today, if you can find a buyer.

The gyrating price of another commodity – corn has helped put pressure on plenty of dairymen. Until this July, the price of corn – about 60 percent of the cost of making milk – kept going higher and higher, nearly reaching $8 a bushel this summer before falling to less than half that later in the year. But Grimmius says some dairymen contracted for corn for a period of time at the high price, putting them in worse shape as the price of milk dropped.

The imperfect storm was led by high oil and corn prices that drove all food prices higher, helping to collapse demand for both food and oil worldwide. Between oil and corn, many people these days blame the speculators for the fix we are in.
Grimmius says recent technology that allows dairymen to select mostly female offspring when the mother calves “hasn't helped” since it helps create a surplus of females – in essence supplying more milk at a time when less is needed.

There was more bad news internationally in recent weeks when the European Union announced it would resume export subsidies for butter, cheese and milk powder to help its own industry, also hurt by falling prices. A bright spot for the U.S. dairy in the past year has been exports of products bolstered by the fact for once, U.S. dairies did not have to compete with EU subsidies since June 2007. Now that export market, already hurt by falling demand due to the worldwide recession, will have to worry about EU subsides again.

Helping to create a glut of cows is that the slaughter of cows was down last fall even as cow numbers have been building up in California. California had 9,000 more cows in December 2008 than it did a year ago, even though milk production fell for the first time in a while.

Cheese Prices Collapse

Meanwhile, the price of cheese has collapsed in the past month on the commodity markets with the price of a block of cheese set at $1.80 in late November 2008 falling to just about $1 a pound as of January 14. Dairymen are paid a formula price based on the market price of cheese and other dairy commodities.

CDI's Richard Cotta says even with some luck it could be three to five months before things improve.

Some can't wait with their banker or feed supplier telling them as much. Dinuba's Bennie Gonsalves Jr.'s 700-cow Sunnyside Dairy is set for auction January 29 after 27 years.

In the meantime, falling prices in other Valley-grown commodities – cotton, almonds, walnuts and tree fruit – and a decline in the need for hay because of the sudden fall in the number of animals here could make it hard to figure what crop will pay off in the future.

There may be more repercussions connected to the dairy industry. How about the Farm Credit systems that have fed this fast-growing industry that is now threatened, warns WUD this week in a notice to members. “California dairy families need action by Congress in weeks, not years,” warns WUD President Ray Souza. Local banks are likely to be impacted too. Feed companies owed money from this grain-hungry enterprise may feel the pinch as well as good paying customers a few months ago are suddenly turning risky.

Can Insurance Guys Milk a Cow?

“If we don't act, dairymen will have no equity left if this goes on for months. What are we going to do, let the banks and insurance companies milk the cows?” asks Marsh.

Like a Wall Street crash, this rural collapse threatens the loss of a dream that brought dairymen to Tulare County from the Netherlands, the Azores and elsewhere where they thrived as a community – until now – with Tulare and Kings counties supplying 36 percent of the state's milk supply.

In business terms, we grew an industry “cluster” of support industries in dairies in the county for the past three decades the way Hollywood does the film business and Santa Clara did with Silicon Valley. Now there will be pain spread across this region that boasts several of the state's largest cheese plants within a few miles of each other and a score of other dairy processors. Then add up all the suppliers to this industry and pick-up trucks the already suffering car dealers won't be selling because of all this spilled milk.

They will be talking about it all at the Western United Dairying annual winter meeting set for 7 p.m. February 2 at the Heritage Complex in Tulare. The guys will need something stronger than milk to boost spirits this night.


No Plans to Move Clark Center

By Steve Pastis

Hanford - The Clark Center for Japanese Art and Culture in Hanford is in discussions to ensure its future in the Valley.

“It's better if things are decided about what will happen when my wife and I are no longer here,” said Willard G. "Bill" Clark, who with his wife, Elizabeth, founded the Clark Center in 1995. “We're doing 'estate planning.' We're trying to plan what is the best way to keep the vibrancy of the center in the Valley.”

The center's collection includes about 1,700 works of art, including hanging scrolls, screens, ceramics, kimono, sculptures and decorative art. Its growing library of 7,000 volumes focus on Japanese art, and the center offers a research facility for visiting scholars.

“Ultimately, we must be part of a larger institution,” said Clark, who has had discussions with several institutions. He said that the “list of suitors” includes his alma mater, UC Berkeley, which “has the best Japanese studies program in my mind.” Its program includes religion, theater and literature.

On Feb. 18, a representative of the new $160 million Asian museum at UC Berkeley will speak to Clark Center directors and administrators to discuss areas of cooperation. The announcement of the meeting raised local fears that the collection would be moved out of the Valley, fears that are unfounded, according to Clark.
“It's not leaving the Valley,” he said emphatically.

“The center will not leave the Valley in its entirety under any circumstances,” said Andreas Marks, director and chief curator. He said that some of the center's collection may rotate back and forth with another institution, however.

“Whatever discussion there is with UC Berkeley and others, there is no talk about the complete collection leaving,” said Marks. “Exhibitions will continue here, that's for sure. There won't be any change to that. The problem is the more art we have, the more storage facilities we need. It would be a partnership where they help us with storage.”

“The collection is so big, it's better to keep it in two locations. It can move back and forth,” said Clark who also noted, “Only 3 percent can be exhibited at any one time.”

Clark said that he prefers to partner with an institution in California.

“My roots are in the Valley,” said Clark. “I want it to stay for sure on the West Coast. We have suitors in Oregon and Washington, but I would prefer it to be in California because this is my home.”

Marks was surprised about the recent media attention about the Clark Center's discussions with UC Berkeley and others. “They've been talking for three or four years,” he said. “There is talk with different institutions – not only UC Berkeley – about working together.”

When asked what the Clark Center will be like in five years, Clark said he preferred to look ahead 20 years instead, when he expects high-speed rail to speed transportation across the state and through the Central Valley. “I think that we will be the major museum in the Valley,” he said.


Kaweah Delta Delays ER Opening
District Applies for Level 3 Trauma Designation

By Steve Pastis

Visalia - The Kaweah Delta Health Care District now expects to open its new emergency department in early March. The emergency department had been scheduled to open in late February.

“It looks like that's in jeopardy,” said Lindsay K. Mann, CEO of Kaweah Delta. “It still could happen, but more likely it will happen within two weeks of that date.”
At some point between Dec. 25-28, a drinking fountain on the third floor of the new Acequia Wing (Northern Expansion) developed a leak and the first, second and third floors suffered approximately 2,000 square feet of water damage on the far west side of the building. Although the new ER is on the opposite side of the building, the damage will likely delay its opening.

Hensel Phelps, the contractor, is currently reconstructing the area by removing and replacing damaged ceiling tiles, wallboard and carpet with brand new materials. “We anticipate them to be done in early March,” Mann said.
Level 3 Trauma Designation

Meanwhile, at its Jan. 12 meeting, the district's board of directors approved applying for a level 3 trauma designation. The process, which includes document review and physical facility inspections, takes between three and six months. Expectations are that the paperwork will be submitted by the end of the month, meaning a decision would most likely be reached sometime in the spring.

“The level 3 designation that we're seeking, we in essence, already perform all those functions,” said Daniel Allain, director of critical care services. “This is formalizing those functions.” He added that the new designation would give Kaweah Delta a review mechanism and it would tie the district in with a five-county trauma program in the Valley.

“It really solidifies the whole trauma concept,” said Allain. “And with us being centered between Bakersfield and Fresno, there was a significant need for another designated trauma center.”

The Community Regional Medical Center in Fresno is a level 1 trauma center, meaning that it has in-house anesthesia, surgeons and orthopedics. “To be a level one, you have to have all the services,” Allain said. Kern Medical Center in Bakersfield is a level 2, which requires call agreements and may offer neurosurgeons and general surgeons.

“In general, (the level 3 trauma designation) really sensitizes the whole medical staff to trauma,” said Dr. John Hipskind, medical director of the emergency department and a member of the health care district's board of directors. “Most studies show that for any given area of medicine, the more you do, the better you are at that skill set. We manage trauma and we do a pretty good job as is, but when you become a level 3 designated trauma center, then we're apt to get a higher volume of sicker patients and so by preparing for that and then managing those sicker patients, everybody's trauma resuscitation skills go up – the emergency department, the ICU, the surgical department and all the subspecialties. The end result is that you are going to increase the quality of care by acquiring this level 3 designation.”

The level 3 designation would also “cement certain transfer arrangements,” specifically with the medical center in Fresno, he added. “They currently act as our lifeline for patients who are too sick for us to manage here. We stabilize and transfer them, typically to the Regional Medical Center. That arrangement gets streamlined, gets formalized.”

Hipskind agrees with Allain that there wouldn't be major changes in services if Kaweah Delta receives the level 3 designation. “Everyone who comes in the door we're fully capable of taking care of with the resources and personnel we have now,” he said. “But by becoming a level 3 center, you get extra training to the staff; it brings on extra resources and it prepares the hospital and the staff to better manage the patients that we're getting now.”

“The other thing that the level 3 trauma designation will do for the community is it brings online an injury prevention specialist who educates,” said Allain. “That would be an RN position that would predominantly focus on the children where we can begin to teach them safe practices and injury prevention.”

“We will have a designated trauma medical director,” added Mann. “We'll have a trauma coordinator, so we have both physicians and hospital staff who will help direct the trauma effort, the educational process, the coordination of services.” The hospital district is starting the process of selecting the two directors, according to Mann.

Kaweah Delta is currently licensed as a trauma receiving facility offering basic emergency service staffed by physicians 24 hours a day. “That is the same status as Tulare District and Sierra View,” said Mann. Kaweah Delta started the process to become a level 3 trauma center in 2007.

“Once we decided yes, we're moving forward, we've been meeting for a year and a half to two years with our trauma committee, which is a medical staff committee, again investigating the need to go to a level 3 trauma – what resources are necessary, what resources do we have already, what agreements do we have to have in place,” said Mann.

“Once we've identified and solidified those agreements and we know we have the resources in place, there are two avenues – the EMS (Emergency Medical Services) agency, the regional agency in Fresno, or the American College of Surgeons.”

The helipad that has been in the district's plans “will happen,” according to Mann, who said that the timing will depend on “how soon we can remove several buildings in the downtown area and create additional parking.” He said that it would be more of a “helistop,” meaning that helicopters will not sit at the location at Locust and Mineral King for very long, just long enough to receive and evacuate patients.

The New ER

The trauma resuscitation area in the new emergency department will have four rooms that are large enough to each accommodate three patients if necessary.

“They're designed so we can work around the patient, get imaging equipment in and out and have ample room to do everything that we need,” said Allain. “Across from the resuscitation suites, we have four additional critical care rooms that we will use for cardiac patients. In addition, we have an eight-bed holding area that will double as emergency treatment space, but it can also be used to hold patients in a quieter environment. It flexes into a regular treatment area for the influx of very sick patients.”

Some new technology, including a new CT scanner, will be added to the new emergency department, but technology isn't the key to a well-run ER, according to Allain.

“When you talk about technology in the emergency department, there really isn't a lot of high-tech,” he said. “It's the people and it's the medical staff that supports it. That's what makes this emergency department the premier emergency department.”
Kaweah Delta may eventually apply for a level 2 designation.

“It's possible,” said Mann. “We're looking down the road. Kaweah Delta is looking at medical residency programs with UC Irvine.” The district has also been looking at residency programs with other medical schools. A residency program would help provide the necessary staffing for a level 2 designation.

“As those medical residency programs materialize and mature, we may be in a position to reconsider our designation,” he continued. “It would be very premature for me to say that's our target at this point. Level 3 is our target. We will rise and perform very admirably to the standards of a level 3 designation. Level 2 is not in our discussion at this point.”


RAIL MEETING IN DC
Rail Abandonment Appeal Eyed

By Miles Shuper

Following a meeting with federal rail regulators in Washington, D.C, Tulare County officials this week were considering asking reconsideration of a ruling allowing the San Joaquin Valley Railroad to abandon a 30-mile segment from Lindsay to the Kern County line.

However, the clock is ticking on getting a deal done.

Tulare County Rail Committee Chairman Tom Sparks says SJVR appears to be going ahead with its destruction of the 30-mile segment despite the plunging scrap steel prices, and could possibly begin ripping out the line in early March.
With the exception of required approval from the State Historical Preservation Office which determines if any historic artifacts or structures are along the route, SJVR seems to have met abandonment requirements.

County Supervisor Allen Ishida, Sparks and Tulare County Association of Governments (TCAG) Executive Director Ted Smalley each said their meeting with staff of the federal Surface Transportation Board (STB) and other politicians were encouraging.

Sparks expects this week's TCAG board to approve asking the STB to take another look at its approval of last year's abandonment approval and possibly reconsidering the $3.3 million value the STB placed on the 30-mile segment, a price based mainly on scrap iron prices which have plummeted since that decision. County Supervisors may consider filing the appeal at their Jan. 27 meeting.

Ishida said prior to the trip the focus would be to express dissatisfaction with the STB rail abandonment process, especially tight timelines and deadlines. “We don't feel we got our money's worth for the $22,000 we spent to oppose the abandonment petition,” Ishida said. He said the cost of filing for reconsideration would be minimal, according to STB regulations. The county may also consider asking for a STB ruling to delay any ripping out of the track on the Lindsay-to-Jovista line.

While these issues are ongoing, the county has been talking with Union Pacific Railroad for the potential sale of the rail right-of-way on which SJVR runs. In addition, Patriot Railroad, a fast-growing short-line company, has expressed a strong interest in buying the 30-mile segment and possibly other SJVR segments. There are several plans being considered involving the potential purchase by the county in conjunction with a joint venture with Patriot Rail.

County officials contend that rail service is crucial for more effective and cost-efficient transportation, as well as an effective way to drastically cut Valley air pollution. Rail service also is important in attracting new industrial and commercial businesses or expanding it, they say.

Meanwhile, SJVC officials have indicated they will ask the STB to reconsider its bid to abandon a nine-mile segment linking Lindsay and Exeter, in addition to a new request to abandon another segment linking Exeter and Dinuba. Sparks, Ishida and Smalley each said they had heard that rumor for some time but recently were told of the plan by SJVR officials. The rail company has contended that the line is too costly to operate, a matter which the county disputes based on studies by a rail consultant and others which say SJVR used misleading and incomplete financial information. In addition, the county, which has been waging a concerted effort to maintain and expand rail freight service, contends SJVR discourages business on those segments by adding surcharges and other hurdles to support its contention that the lines are not financially viable.

Sparks said the county rail committee is scheduling meetings with existing and potential shippers, especially in southern Tulare County, to generate additional rail use.

Sparks said the several factors appear to favor a STB reconsideration of its decision, including the apparent devaluation of the rail segment, the failure of a reported sale agreement between SJVC and a salvage company, and other issues.

Tulare County had offered to pay $1.2 million for the segment but the STB rejected it based on a sale offer by a salvage company. The county, through a hired counsel, had expressed the validity of the sale offer by the salvage company and now that it didn't meet the deadline requirements opens the door even wider for STB's reconsideration.

Sparks says the Washington trip provided the STB staff with its initial “first hand look at Tulare County's rail issues” which don't always come through in reports and documents.

Sparks said SJVR appears to be going ahead with its potential scrapping of the 30-mile segment, despite the plunging scrap steel prices and could possibly begin ripping out the line in early March. With the exception of required approval from the State Historical Preservation Office, which determines if any historic artifacts or structures are along the route, SJVR seems to have met abandonment requirements.


Local Banks Cautious
as New Year Begins

By Rick Elkins

Tulare County - While no one claims to hold a crystal ball, local bank leaders agree that 2009 is going to be a tough year – for everyone.

“Rarely have things been so dismal on every level,” said Jim Holly, president and founder of Bank of the Sierra, who has been in banking in Tulare County for more than 30 years. He said never has he seen so much pessimism. “It's pretty alarming.”
“The U.S. economy is now in a deep recession. When the final data is tallied, real GDP growth is expected to have dropped nearly 5.6 percent in the fourth quarter of 2008, its worst performance since 1982. The results are grim across the board – consumer spending is falling, exports are weakening and both housing starts and prices continue to decline,” stated the report – U.S. Metro Economies – prepared for the United States Conference of Mayors and released Monday.

The report predicts unemployment in the Visalia-Porterville market will increase from 12.4 percent today to 15.1 percent by the end of this year. In Kings County, unemployment is expected to rise to 14.9 percent from 12.3 percent today.
Tom Beene, president of Visalia Community Bank, said the strong will survive and the weak may fail in an economy in this much trouble, but he, like Holly, is optimistic a new president can help to restore confidence and jumpstart a nearly-dead economy.

“I'm hopeful,” said Beene of President Barack Obama's stimulus plan that he hopes will put people back to work.

Holly sees some people waiting for the new president.

“What is needed is someone on the national front, maybe Obama – he's the key – that could restore that confidence. People need to be encouraged, need to be lifted up,” said Holly.

The Conference of Mayors agrees.

Monday's reported noted that Congress and the Obama administration are working on a huge fiscal stimulus plan to jumpstart the economy – a package of government spending and tax cuts that will likely total nearly $800 billion. “Infrastructure spending and direct grants to state and local governments will surely constitute a significant proportion of the total,” noted the report.

The report added that all spending in the economy provides some degree of multiplier impacts on other spending, as income earned in one sector provides demand for goods and services in others. “The recovery package of government spending would directly offset declining private spending, and also generate multiplier effects in the private sector, hopefully ending the vicious cycle and stabilizing conditions until the financial sector is normalized so that private spending and lending can resume a virtuous path,” noted the mayors' report.

The report stressed the importance of government action. “The U.S. economy is in dire straits. The recession is steadily deepening, perhaps to a depth unseen since the Great Depression of the 1930s. All of the tools of monetary policy favored by the Federal Reserve have proven ineffective in the face of the unprecedented crisis of the U.S. financial system.”

Holly agreed. “The Treasury and Fed have done all it can do. Now we're waiting for consumer confidence – at an all-time low – to come back.”

Some Hope Out There

Beene says low interest rates – down to about 5 percent on a 30-year fixed home mortgage – can be a key to moving the economy forward again

“Our consumer lender is the busiest he's been in a long time, and much of that is car loans,” said Beene, adding home loans are being made as well. He said people who have saved some money are taking advantage of the low rates and the great prices, both in housing and automobiles.

Don Gilles, president of Valley Business Bank, said no matter what the new president does, 2009 will be a tough year. However, he too expressed optimism. “The bank expects to grow deposits and see loan and deposit growth because of the problems with the big banks,” he said, adding they are already seeing customers switching from the large banks to the local banks.

While he said they have not seen a lot of business people coming in seeking loans, Beene said they have worked with many business people who are struggling.
“As a community bank, we're willing to try and work with them, as long as they have a plan,” said Beene. He said that the number of “troubled businesses” is unprecedented.

Another key to recovery – and low interest rates may help – is a rebound in the housing industry. Holly said stabilizing that part of the economy is “first and foremost,” adding the first thing that is needed is to get the excess housing off the market.

Gilles said concerning is news that agriculture – mainly dairymen – is hurting now as well. He said usually the Valley is somewhat immune to the ills hitting the rest of the nation because of ag, but he said, “As ag has problems, so will the rest of the community.”

Valley Business Bank will soon make a decision on whether to accept the federal package offered to help all banks. Gilles said the bank is likely going to take the $7.7 million being offered.

“We're in the loan business. We have that money to lend and we want to get that money out to the community,” he said.

Bank of the Sierra and Visalia Community Bank both declined the feds' offer, saying too many strings were attached to the money.


What's New

Foreclosures up in region. According to RealtyTrac, a real estate web site, foreclosure activity peaked in December with 862 foreclosure notices sent out in Tulare County and 231 in Kings County. That is way up from the number sent out in November and represents one in every 156 housing units in Tulare County and one in every 181 in Kings. In Visalia, there were 378 notices issued in December, 155 in Tulare, 130 in Porterville, 38 in Dinuba, 31 in Exeter, 29 in Farmersville, 16 in Lindsay, 140 in Hanford, 57 in Lemoore, 16 in Corcoran and nine in Avenal.

Tulare County Board Chair Phil Cox was in Porterville touring the site for the proposed new south county court – the local fairgrounds. Cox says the county is looking for the best place to put an adjacent county office building that houses all affiliated criminal justice personnel.

Local realtor Ed Evans says buyers continue to have “little urgency to buy now” with prices continuing to decline. Interest rates are lower, heading down below 5%. Still the market is thin with first-time homebuyers and investors making up the bulk of buyers. The pace of home sales in the Southland gives one hope for a recovery, however, with December sales higher in L.A., up 32% from December a year ago and up 88% in San Bernardino. Foreclosure accounts for just under 60% of sales.

An Inaugural Celebration, hosted by the Tulare County Democratic Central Committee was held Tuesday evening at Crawdaddy's which was booked for the night. Stan Carter, a TCDCC board member, said he expected a capacity crowd of 250 persons to attend. Carter said the event was open to anyone wanting to celebrate the inauguration of President Barack Obama. Among those scheduled to speak were Victor Moheno, Dean Singh and Jake Torrence, local Democratic Party leaders.

The Wilderness Land Trust has acquired 2,635 acres in Tulare County's southern Sierra Nevada to preserve as wilderness. A 200-acre tract in the Domeland Wilderness and a 2,435-acre property adjacent to the Sacatar Trail Wilderness have been purchased by the trust. The property will be turned over to the Bureau of Land Management to be administered as wilderness.

In April, the long awaited Houston Avenue widening project will begin widening the street to four lanes from Santa Fe east to Ben Maddox. The project includes the town's first roundabout at Santa Fe and Houston.

COS enrollment continues to climb. A week into the Spring semester and enrollment at COS is up 824 to 11,344, an 8 percent increase over the same point last spring. And students are taking more units and more classes. Total units being taken are up 12 percent to 105,699, and class enrollments are up 13 percent to 34,829.

Visalia city had to pull the bid awarding for $190,000 in improvements to the Wittman Village Community Center, including needed repairs to the building and upgrades to the park. The city had already gotten the bids, which were very favorable, said City Parks and Recreation Director Vincent Elizondo, but now has to put them on hold. He said the bids are good for 60 days and they may seek a 30-day extension if necessary to avoid have to rebid the project. He said because of the state's fiscal mess, it cannot sell bonds, including park and recreation bonds approved by voters. He did say the sports park phase II will move forward, but St. Johns Trailway, several playground projects including the handicapped playground planned for Recreation Park, have been put on hold. The mini park, Miki Park, will move forward.

Tulare County officials are not expected to go along with a proposal to increase housing density beyond what they have already decided to increase it in the future. Officials from throughout the eight-county region will meet in Fresno Jan. 26 to decide the Regional Blueprint, a process to come up with long-range planning to reduce pollution and urban sprawl in the Central Valley. During a series of meetings last year, Tulare County agreed to a plan that would increase housing density by 25 percent, but state officials have since asked counties to look at significantly increasing that percentage. “It doesn't make sense for our area,” said Visalia Council Member Bob Link, who is on the Tulare County Association of Government board of directors, of increasing density beyond the 25 percent.

Former Tulare County chief administrative officer Brian Haddix has resigned as chief administrative officer of Butte County, effective March 24. Haddix left Tulare County in late 2007 to take the Butte job.

The City of Visalia has made the old Copeland Sports store on Mooney Blvd. a bit more marketable by changing the zoning of the property to allow for more uses. City Housing and Economic Development Director Richard Noguera said the amendment approved by the planning commission could pave the way for the old sporting goods store to house a drug store.


Top of the News

Budget Crisis Could
Hit the Fan Feb 1

State Controller John Chaing's announcement that as of Feb. 1, counties would not receive payment for vital services including Cal-works, mental health programs and alcohol and drug abuse treatment has local officials dumfounded. “I don't know what pot of gold the state thinks we have in Tulare County,” says county spokesman Eric Coyne.

That means payments made out to local recipients would have to be backed by the county instead of the state. Here, you guys pay them, the state is saying.

Because of the stalled state budget crisis, “their problem is being shifted on our backs,” complains Coyne.
The fear is that that the county simply won't have the cash to make these payments, ratcheting up the decibel level on this crisis.

“This may not be a big problem in Marin County but in Tulare County where there are lots of poor people, it's a potentially devastating situation,” says Coyne.
Statewide, applications for public assistance have increased 22 percent from Sept. '07 to Sept. '08 and for cases with two parents, increased 15 percent.

Millennium Fund Contribution
Expected to be Down

Like everyone's 401K, the county's Millennium Fund isn't performing as well as it used to. Supervisor Phil Cox says the county will not likely allocate as much as past years to the county's capital program.
Still, the fund is healthy, valued at $46.4 million. In 2009, the State Tobacco Settlement proceeds will deposit $4.4 million.

While no decision has been made on how much to pull out this year, it likely will be no more than $2.5 million, says county administrator Kristin Bennett. They had hoped to have $3 to 4 million for such projects.

Broken Sewer Line Floods
Mearle's Basement

The basement of Mearle's Drive-In in Visalia was completely flooded over the weekend.

“The city sewer main was backed up,” said Alan Anderson, lead wastewater technician for the city of Visalia, who said the backup started just north of Mearle's. “We already took care of our problem.”

“All the neighbors have had trouble with their sewer line,” said Nabor Arreola, who works for Ralph Kazarian, Jr., the owner of the landmark restaurant. He said that the flooding in Mearle's started over the weekend and the work to drain the basement began on Monday.

“They had to have a broken pipe for the sewage to get into their basement,” said Anderson about the flooding in Mearle's.

“The best thing that Mearle's can do is file a claim against the city,” he said. “I'll verify it was a main line that backed up.” He also suggested that “Mearle's should keep all their receipts.”


Economy Hitting Lumber Mills, Market

Terra Bella - Like falling timber, prices paid for bulk lumber have fallen to levels today not seen since the Great Depression, says Kent Duysen, general manager of the family-owned business in Terra Bella.

The collapse of the nation's home building industry and the worldwide economic slowdown has further cut into the local timber industry that has been reeling for years from a lack of timber and falling prices.

“Housing starts are one-third of what they were two years ago,” said Duysen, who runs the business with his brother, Larry.

The mill employs about 120 workers, but today those employees are working three weeks, and then are off a week without pay. That has been the schedule since last March and it was started to stretch a dwindling timber supply, but the reason today is also because of the low timber prices.

Duysen said the price the mill use to get for an 8-foot 2x4 is $370 to $380 per thousand. Today, that price is $170, “which is not economically sustainable for anybody.” Lumber material used for window and door framing has dropped from $880 to $470.

Consumer prices fell at a record rate in November and housing starts plummeted to a level not seen in nearly half a century. Analysts say residential building permits as of November were down by nearly 50 percent from the previous year.

Duysen said the projection is 670,000 housing starts nationwide this year and only an increase to 835,000 in 2010. He said the average the past several years has been 1.8 to 2.1 million starts a year.

“You may ask, 'What isn't down?'” said Cynthia Kroll, senior regional economist for the Fisher Center for Real Estate and Urban Economics at the University of California, Berkeley. “Well, nonresidential alterations and additions are holding steady — up about 2 percent.”

Interest in wholesale timber supplies, however, has dried up with the slowdown in home construction. Redding-based timberland manager Len Lindstrand Jr., who is chairman of California Farm Bureau Federation's Forestry Advisory Committee, said the economic downturn affects production of a variety of wood products.

“We've got our fingers crossed for 2010. We're looking at sales lows that we haven't seen in nearly 30 years. The last time it was this low the decline lasted for about two and a half years.”

He said timber companies are tightening their belts because they still have taxes and land management expenses. But for some, cinching hasn't helped.

Between January 2000 and April 2008, 24 mills have closed, leaving 38 currently in operation, according to the California Forestry Association. The forest products sector accounts for one in 10 jobs in 11 of the state's northern counties.

Duysen said even the large companies are starting to be hit, with some deciding it is better to shut down completely rather than cut back. Sierra Forest Products is the only lumber mill south of Sonora still operating in California.
And the future is not bright in terms of an increased supply of logs. He said logging on the Sequoia National Forest is basically nonexistent and any pending sales on any other local national forest have been tied up by lawsuits filed by environmentalists.

At best, he said, the mill might get some timber from burned areas, but environmentalists are prone to sue to block those salvage sales as well.

“I don't see any quick recovery for any sectors of the economy anytime soon. There are just a lot of unknowns,” said the mill owner.

The California Farm Bureau Federation contributed to this report.


Demolition Opens View of Wall Sign

By Miles Shuper

Demolition of a large wooden building at the northwest corner of Willis Street and School Avenue in Visalia has exposed an adjacent brick wall and drawn considerable attention to what appears to be a billboard-type advertisement which could lead to new clues to Visalia's past.

The west exterior wall of what now houses Handley's New and Used Restaurant Equipment business at 400 N. Johnson St., now faces the vacant lot in the 400 block of North Willis Street and is exposed to Willis Street travelers.

The advertisement, painted in dark letters on the exterior brick wall, reads “Wagons, Farm Implements, Grain.” Several feet above in somewhat smaller and semi-script form are the words “L Guggenhime, dealer.” Although the lettering was visible from an alleyway between the now-demolished building and the Handley building, it was only visible to those using the alleyway and the tight and small parking area. But a preliminary review of historical documents has turned up no clues to a “Guggenhime”-named business or any reference to that family name in Visalia, according to area historian Terry Ommen.

Crews demolished the old wood-frame building most recently owned by the Vartanian family which has no announced immediate plans for the lot. In recent years, it served as office and storage space when Tom and Doris Chester owned it and operated the Wagon Wheel Steak House across Willis Street.

The now-exposed wall painting has drawn considerable attention from passersby and photographers and several persons who have made inquiries to building owner Ed Handley and Don Wilson, company manager. That building has been remodeled and updated several times but the exterior walls, at least on the east side, appear to date back to at least the 1880s.

According to old maps, the entire block from Murray Street to the north and School Avenue to the south, Johnson on the west and Willis to the east, was a hub for agricultural operations, including a cannery, fruit processing shed, livestock yard, warehousing and supplies dating well into the mid and late-1800s.

Using what he refers to as Sanborn maps used by fire insurance companies to list and evaluate properties, Ommen, who has an extensive knowledge of early Visalia, has begun researching the sign on the brick building. The maps show a rail spur line running east and west, ending just short of the current Willis Street alignment. That line, according to the map, connected with the rail tracks near what is now Murray Street, which Ommen says is a further indication that the whole area was a major hub for farm-related operations including shipping and receiving grains and other commodities and for shipping livestock. Maps show the stockyard fronting on Willis.

The current Handley building was labeled “Pioneer Ware House” on an 1891 Sanborn map and subsequent maps. There also are indications that the site of the recently demolished wood structure was used for fruit processing prior to a building being constructed there.

Ommen said his best current guess is that the wall painting “was a billboard of some kind and not the name of the local business,” adding he has found no reference to that name or the more common “Guggenheim” spelling in his collection of early Visalia residents and businesses.

Ommen says he plans to do more research into the sign and see what new clues it might reveal to Visalia's rich past and its business and agricultural-oriented past.


Tule River Tribe Elects New Chairman

By Claudia Elliott

A 33-year-old Army veteran who served in Afghanistan is the new chairman of the Tule River Tribal Council.
Ryan Garfield takes the reins from Neil Peyron who will remain on the council but declined a nomination for re-election Saturday night during the council's annual reorganization meeting. Peyron has been tribal chairman for the past six years.

The nine-member Tule River Tribal Council is elected to govern the Tule River Tribe and the Tule River Reservation. Elections are held each year the third Saturday of January for two-year terms. This year, five seats were up for election.

Garfield is entering the second year of his second term on the council and previously served as vice chairman. He told the 100 or so tribal members who stayed at tribal headquarters until nearly midnight to wait for the votes to be counted that he wants to improve communication.

Peyron also has a year left on his current term on the council. He told those gathered Saturday night that he did not wish to hold an office this term. His mother, Evelyn J. Hunter, died the previous Saturday. She had also served on the council and her seat was among those up for election.

Council member Amanda Sierra, who chaired this year's tribal election committee, said 308 valid ballots were cast. A total of 408 tribal members had been certified to vote. Generally, tribal members must live on the reservation in order to vote or run for office.

The highest vote getter in the most recent election was Gayline Hunter McDarment, a newcomer to the council, with 110 votes. Receiving 102 votes was Duane M. Garfield Sr., who has served on the council in the past and is also Ryan Garfield's father. Two other newcomers were also elected – Gary Garner Santos with 83 votes and Melanie “Mel” Santos with 81 votes. Incumbent Heather Teran was reelected with 65 votes.

Council member James Diaz was elected vice chair; Sierra will serve as secretary and McDarment as treasurer.
Gary Garner Santos was among a contingent of tribal members who traveled to Washington, D.C. this week for the presidential inauguration. In addition to joining millions of Americans to watch Barack Obama be sworn in as president, they attended meetings with other tribes.

The Tule River Tribe was among 100 tribal organizations across the country to endorse Obama's campaign. In addition to the general interest that tribes have in hoping for increased funding for Native American health, education and other programs, the Tule River Tribe will be looking to Washington for a resolution to its long-standing water problems.

A settlement agreement between the tribe and other Tule River water interests depends upon ratification by Congress. The Tule River Tribe Water Development Act, carried through the House of Representatives by Rep. Devin Nunes in the last term, died when it was not taken up by the Senate. The act would have provided funding for a feasibility study for a dam and storage reservoir on the North Fork of the Tule, something that the various water interests have agreed is essential to provide for the tribe's water needs.

Working to finalize the water settlement and continued work on the tribe's efforts to move its casino to land it owns near the Porterville Airport are expected to be key issues facing the newly-elected tribal chairman and council in the coming year.

Garfield and his wife, Jade, have three children; Ka, 8, Lily, 4, and Ryan, 2. The new tribal chairman was featured in Stars and Stripes, the military newspaper, for his efforts helping rescue a child while he was serving in Afghanistan. He is a 1993 graduate of Citrus High School in Porterville.


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The above stories are the property of The Valley Voice Newspaper and may not be reprinted without explicit permission in writing from the publisher. 

January 22, 2009

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