Unattached Voters Could Sway Election This Year
Some 24,455 registered voters declined to state any party preference in the new 21st Congressional District that includes southern Fresno and all of Tulare County.
In a tight 3-way Republican primary the fact that this year those voters can choose a GOP ballot could make that race interesting.
While there are around 117,000 registered Republican in voters in the District, this wild card that could add another 20% to the total may tip the balance in a race where each candidate has run proudly as a conservative.
Some observers think the race will be tight with a few thousand votes separating the top spot from the runner up. Observers believe the voters who can select ballots from any of the 4 recognized parties in the state this March will likely choose a Republican ballot because it has the only horse race around including the highly visible GOP Governor's race and the heated Congressional race that pits Devin Nunes, Mike Briggs and Jim Patterson against a field of lesser known rivals.
A non-partisan voter entering the voting booth can select from Republican, Democrat, Natural Law or American Independent this year for the first time as a result of court cases and decisions by the parties to open up the process. All the ballots contain the listing of non-partisan races.
Statewide there is more than 2.2 million unaffiliated voters - almost 15% of the electorate and about 5.3 million Republicans. In general those voters may be more moderate than registered Republicans but others believe they simply aren't as much involved in politics and therefore less likely to be voters March 5th.
If you don't request a ballot from a particular party, you will be handed a ballot that contains only the list of non-partisan ballot measures for the primary election. Since that limits your voting choice many believe voters, if they realize they will have the choice, will pick a partisan ballot this year.
Central valley counties tend to be running about 10% Decline-To-State while coastal counties like Santa Barbara are closer to 15%. The state numbers are up since 1986 when only 8% listed themselves as Decline-To-State. San Francisco County has 24% unaffiliated.
Fresno Influence
The February 4 registration count shows that registration in the new 21st District is about 51% in Tulare County compared to about 49% in Fresno County showing an increase in the numbers from Fresno County. But on the all important Republican Congressional race, where two of the candidates are from Fresno County and one from Tulare County, there are 59,772 GOP from Fresno and 57,145 from Tulare County meaning Fresno voting numbers for the race have increased.
The number of registered voters fell around 4500 from October of last year to the latest February 4 count with more Democrats falling off the rolls than Republicans.
Last October the County was 46.8% Republican and on 2/4/02 it is listed as 47.17% GOP following a trend here for the past few years.
In 1996 for example, with only a few thousand fewer eligible voters in the County, Democratic registration was over 55,000. Today it is 46,000.
Republicans boasted 54,700 voters in October 2001 compared to 57,145 as of February 2002 according to those statistics.
In 1996, eight years ago, there were 4000 more registered voters in the County than today, a measure of a decline in public participation. While we think of the fact that Tulare County has grown wildly since 1987 - some 15 years ago the number of registered voters has gone up only 17,000 in all those year growth years. In 1987 there were around 104,000 registered voters in the County compared to 121,000 today. During the same interval the County's population went from 288,000 in 1987 to about 375,000 today.
Originally the new Congressional District was said to have a 57% Tulare County population advantage but that has not translated to voters.
The new District has attracted a large field of candidates because it is a new District - with incumbents in place. Challengers running against incumbents is well over 98% of the cases can't beat the intrenched competition.
New Seat - A Chance To Gain Clout
Congressional candidates for the new 21st District agree on one thing - it's high time Tulare County's interest was top priority in Congress. Speaking at this week's forum in Visalia, each of 8 candidates for the new seat weighed in on the top questions of the day.
Regarding the question of local political power - "I don't blame the former representatives," says candidate Tom Wright, "they naturally gravitated toward their power base" in the past and that wasn't Tulare County. Until the new district was formed, Tulare County has been (still is) represented by three Congress members whose political and money base is elsewhere, he says.
Wright, a Tulare County Sheriff says "every day we go and deal with the problems of the poor, undocumented and underprivileged" of the county without adequate resources "and we find ourselves frustrated."
Agreeing is Assemblyman Mike Briggs who comments that by any measure Tulare County gets the short end "from roads, to infrastructure to education" the County finds itself shortchanged. Highway 99 is most important road through the central valley and "is 6 to 8 lanes in many parts" but is narrowed down through Tulare County - proof of a lack of clout.
One key measure is the state's lowest reimbursement rates for MediCal and Medicare and low per pupil spending on schools.
Briggs introduced legislation to designate Tulare and Kings counties for a 4-year university since it is the largest region of California without one.
Candidate Devin Nunes says the district's interests "are rural-agriculture" and those interests in Washington will be overwhelmed by urban interests unless the representative knows and understands agriculture. "It's time to send an aggressive young Tulare County native to Washington" suggests the Pixley dairyman.
"But you don't elect a zip code," says former Fresno mayor Jim Patterson, one of the top three contenders. "The problems we fought in Fresno - crime, drugs and poor roads are the same problems we have throughout the District," he suggests. Patterson says the population base is evenly divided between Fresno and Tulare counties "and any Congressman will have to represent all of the District."
Former Navy pilot Greg Ingles says his top priority is "to increase your quality of life" and suggests the region needs to both protect and nourish agriculture and increase the job base. As a former CEO of a company, Ingles says he would lobby companies to open an office or plant here.
Candidate Nathan Short says he is concerned about agriculture keying off a discussion of terrorism remarked "that we have a terrorist organization and its called NAFTA." He said he spoke to an avocado farmer at the Farm Show recently who told him that Mexican avocados had brought in a blight to the San Diego area that will be hard to get rid of.
Libertarian Jonathan Richter told the crowd that implementing term limits is a major help in getting new blood into the political system but cautions that some politicians like Congressman George Radanovich who once favored term limits now wants to keep going in office.
Devin Nunes noted that politicians are drawing the political lines" for the districts making each district safe for one party or another.
The March primary is "essentially the General Election" says Nunes since Republicans hold a strong majority in the new district that Nunes calls "gerimandering". It includes all of Tulare County but has carved out the southern portion of Fresno County including Clovis.
Nunes notes that the new 20th District virtually assures that seat for a Democrat - Cal Dooley - and says Republicans "don't have a chance" to overturn Mr. Dooley.
"You are probably going to elect a Congressman here who will be there for the next ten years."
Frustrated by media focus on the to three candidates in the race is Greg Ingles. "The race isn't about who has the most commercials or the most signs," says Ingles who has run a low key campaign "it's about the need for the voter to perform due diligence in picking the right candidate." Amen, says a number of the other candidates. Porterville Democrat David Lapere and Republican Richard Morgan, a fiery conservative were not present.
Contributions Become Issue in
21st District Race
Pixley's Devin Nunes leads the slate of challengers for the new 21st Congressional District having raised around half a million dollars by mid February in his bid to win the March 5th primary.
Reports filed with the Federal Election Commission this week put Nunes' total at near the $500,000 mark that includes a $100,000 loan to himself. The federal filing states the Tulare County dairyman has $300,000 left to spend - a figure that should go fast with only days to the election.
Nunes is followed by former Fresno mayor Jim Patterson who FEC figures show has raised around $320,000 that includes a $30,000 loan. The filing shows some $61,000 remaining to be spent as of Tuesday, February 26.
Following behind Patterson is current Assemblyman Mike Briggs who has raised around $215,000 according to top staff with the latest filing showing only $164,000.
A flood of recent donations to all the top three campaigns for the seat include out of district money, around 50%, on behalf of Nunes and Patterson and about 25% for the Briggs campaign. Nunes' listing includes a grassroots support from local dairymen who have anted up for a fellow dairyman. Around 100 local agriculturists - most in the dairy business - contributed to Nunes campaign in $250 to $2000 amounts. Nunes also received substantial funds, but he also received over $80,000 from PACs of all descriptions - groups like the Renal Leadership Council ($5000) and the Pfizer Inc. PAC ($5000) and $4500 from members of the Walton family representing Walmart.
Patterson's major out of state contributor is the Club for Growth Organization that lobbied it members to send in individual contributions to Patterson in support of the conservative platform. That total is estimated to be about $100,000 and is included in Patterson campaigning filing with checks pouring in from around the country.
Unseen in the campaign filing are so-called independent expenditures likely to amount to $200,000 by one estimate that is targeting Patterson with radio ads and perhaps a letter campaign that could lambast the former mayor. Some of those funds are being funneled through a PAC called Public Advocate with close ties to Bakersfield Congressman Bill Thomas the powerful Chairman of Ways and Means in Congress. Thomas supports Nunes.
It is this type of "soft money" being targeted by Campaign Finance Reform legislation - money that enters a campaign but is not accountable to public scrutiny.
Briggs campaign chair Rock Zierman likes to contrast the Briggs campaign to the two suggesting Briggs doesn't run attack ads nor does he depend on out of district contributions. He notes the "cash on hand" category is not significant since candidates spend it as fast as they get it.
Nunes has defended the need to get PAC money from out the district to help offset ads being run promoting Patterson's record in Fresno funded with the Club for Growth money.
Ortiz Challenges Worthley For 4th
District Supervisor
Woodlake mayor Frances Ortiz is challenging Dinuba's Steve Worthley for a seat on the 4th District Board of Supervisors.
Worthley is this year's chairman of the board and is asking voters to return him for a second term. "I'm enjoying what I'm doing and think I can take advantage of the learning curve to do this job," says the 48 year old attorney.
Ortiz, 61 has lived in the area since 1966 and is in her second term at the town's mayor along with logging in 10 years on the school board. "I'm running because I feel bad for the people in the rural areas who deserve better law enforcement and health care," she says.
Ortiz says she wonders why county employees can't get a better health care by "piggy backing on with another agency like the schools that have good health care plans." County employees have had to dig deep this year to fund their health plans because the County didn't have the funds to pay for it.
Worthley says his top goal this term include updating of the County General Plan to help the rural unincorporated area along Highway 99 and elsewhere improve economically. In addition, he says this coming term will need to address the impact of the Clean Air Act on the County including its roads. Worthley says the County "will need to hire a new chief probation officer soon as well. "It's rudderless right now."
Ortiz says she is also concerned about a "shrinking sheriff department" who is losing people because of low pay or health care problems. "We need to assure our people out here of public safety," says Ms. Ortiz. Ortiz says there "is a problem with wasted buildings too," including the empty detention building.
The District includes the towns of Goshen, Dinuba, Cutler, Orosi, Badger and Woodlake.
Keyes vs. Maples
County Supervisor
Incumbent Jim Maples of Springville is facing Springville rancher John Keyes to represent the sprawling 5th District on the Board of Supervisors. For Maples, a retired college professor, this would be his third term on the board, a commitment he made back in 1992 when he was first elected. "There had been a lot of turnover in the district," before Maples entered the scene and "I thought the commitment would lead to stability." He has run unopposed two times.
John Keyes says the district is ripe for change with persistent 19% unemployment in the south county and a "lack of diversification" in the economy. He has hammered on the need to improve Highway 65 and the slow pace of progress.
Maples says while he shares concern over lack of jobs "the question remains what my opponent would do about it" noting all the problems the county has with the fight against air pollution - a process that can limit economic development.
Regarding Highway 65, Maples insists that major improvements "are in the works" saying that CalTrans has assured the public that work on making 65 four lanes could start as soon as April. "They've already paved the bridge over the Tule and Poso creek," says Maples.
Maples says he is proud of the fact that the Porterville area got the new south county civic center established and the new family support division office in downtown as well as a new south Porterville fire station.
Keyes points to his experience as an educator and businessman to lead a "new era for the district. A Vietnam vet, he has been general manager of Wilson Farms since 1983 and owns a small cattle ranch in Springville with his wife. Keyes says one of his commitments is to do more for the senior population of the south county.
At issue is how hard the district works to get in new industry and business with Keyes insisting there isn't enough being done and Mr. Maples arguing that the county already is a member of the Tulare County Economic Development Corporation who hire professionals to "scour the country for companies who could move here."
Keyes says he thinks the area can boost tourism and would work closely with Sequoia National Forest.
"I guess the question the people have to ask themselves is are they better off than they were," when Mr. Maples started Supervising the area.
District 5 includes Porterville, Springville and the back country including California Hot Springs.
The above stories are the property of The Valley Voice Newspaper and may not be reprinted without explicit permission in writing from the publisher.
March Election Special
